Anyway, what would he dump it for? Some people like owning pretty jewelry. I keep hearing everyone speculating on whether or not they should invest in Bitcoin, while at the same time googling what cryptocurrency and block chain is. PS: Brent, you write that if earnings dont pan out, stock prices wont necessarily drop. How much are these companies worth today? Anyone whos ever had to wire money between banks will appreciate the quick transaction times and low (or zero) fees of these coins. Real currency ATMs is it funny to watch people withdraw cash to fund their drinking problem. If you could have somehow monetised the Internet in 1992 and sold it, imagine how rich you would be right now? I wonder why. But thats just the software side (Blockchain). January 3, 2018, 5:48 am. Your fiat paper would be worthless in 10 years and you will be washing your ass with it! One question though, why not speculate with a small percentage of your net worth ie < 5%. The real backing of the dollar is the force the U.S. government will use if its debts are called in. The need for a cryptocurrency is very real. I can trade with anyone in the world for a low price (not necessarily with bitcoin as the price has gotten expensive but with other currencies). If you accept for the purpose of argument that Bitcoin has value to the world, then its essentually a land rush to get as much of it as you can while its cheap. Calling this a waste of human energy is NUTS. Vijay, I think you should sell every non-bitcoin asset you own, borrow as much money as you possibly can, and buy as many bitcoins as possible. Great post, I have been content to sit on the sidelines and watch the show. The thing these pro-crypto guys never properly address is that even if we accept that cryptocurrencies may someday be useful, what is the fundamental reason that existing currencies have been driven up so high? 3. I think its a bit of stretch to call Bitcoin a Ponzi scheme. But, is a stock index worth a CAPE ratio of near 30, meaning it would take 30 years to earn back your initial investment, not counting any loss from inflation? Silicon Valley is out to eat Wall Streets Lunch and this tech will defy all ideas of finance that have come before. It all depends on how much personal enjoyment they get compared to the cost to own them. Let me know which one consumes more energy overall? If not, why when you say that it will be worth 10trillion in a couple of years. People like planting gardens. Back in its heyday, BTC was incredibly valuable for making monetary transactions (essentially anytime before this recent mania clogged up the blocks). The growing demand for more electricity is the most serious issue with Bitcoin, IMO. Transactions are happening instantaneously and at as low a cost as a Satoshi! How many here have switched from Mortgage Fast Pay to Money Market? Dont you find it strange, though, that my grandfather used what you call toilet paper to buy his first car, and his first house? You sound like I poop-obsessed wing nut. I own my currency as it is today (EUR and USD), how come you do not own yours? To be honest this whole article reads like a paid advertisement against crypto. Why Bitcoin and not another coin? I think that gold is nothing special its a shiny rock. Millennial Boss I just hope my tax dollars arent used to bail these folks out. Thats why its unwise to go all-in on something just because its going up. Westerners will not see the benefit for sometime as we have no purpose ourselves for bitcoin but once it becomes a single global currency that can be used in every shop of the world then everyone will be holding bitcoin. Cmon, only wealthy people evade taxes in amounts that would matter & theres a cottage industry made of tax lawyers doing just that for them. Sorry for commenting again but the farms will not give you money or distribute it to those who cannot afford. Sir, its $0.33 for that pound of bananas. Bitcoin is mined using ASICs, not nVidias graphics cards. Facebook is probably the 4th or 5th legitimate social media platform. So we need more credible people to speak out against it. Not the only reason, but if earnings dont pan out, stock prices wont necessarily drop. Go ahead and click on any titles that intrigue you, and I hope to see you around here more often. . January 5, 2018, 7:01 am. The reason internet destroys industries (?? Looks like I made a big mistake then. For fun, I try to gauge how bad is the Fear of missing out is and how that corresponds to a peak. Fair comparison? The Ramsey Show. In the field of personal wealth, this means walking your children past the idling lineup of your neighbors Mercedes SUVs, over the snowy grass and up to the door of the school and being confident that you are doing the right thing. Meanwhile, the honest, hard-working regular folks see their interest both plummet to nearly nothing, and they then see THAT minuscule interest TAXED AGAIN! The EntreLeadership Podcast is a must-listen for any entrepreneur or business leader looking to take their business to the next level. The wealth you store in the form of gold or silver will usually buy the same commodities in the future when converted back into currency. The real winners of the gold rush were the ones who sold shovels. You write that These are all things that people have bought in the past, and driven to completely irrational prices,. Fiat currency was implemented in 1933 in the USA. By exchanging dollars or euros for a fee? positive change I would say, the world is getting smaller) changes is because it makes things easier. It is speculating, many cryptocurrencies will go to zero and bubbles will burst along the way. Soon, they will be on the brink of bankruptcy and you will be able to purchase all of their stuff at a discount. Id like to apologize on behalf of all humanity that you were compelled to spend some of your life energy on that. January 3, 2018, 12:26 pm. This is what is known as " The 4% Rule ". 3) If you are retired, with enough to last you the rest of your life even in cash, then you have eliminated most risks (market crash etc) but not all- the currency you hold your wealth in can fall greatly. Speculation is essential to set a market price for anything. The ones that take off will likely be govt created versions. The happiness of society is made of the happiness of individuals and nothing else. There are no financial instruments that will protect you from a world where we no longer trust each other. A bitcoin is not an investment, just as. Dont know if youve seen JP Searss satire of Bitcoin but I think you might appreciate it. Do you really believe that we should go all-in when it comes to trusting our institutional financial establishments? It is, above all else, pure wealth, other substances, and activities may be valued in gold bullion. Right now, I think that this space allows people to be their own VC. So Im going with no. In 2018 and 2019, expect the speculation to subside as more tokenomics becomes important for valuations. Another interesting side-effect of bitcoin mining: big sales of computer graphics cards, and theft of electricity and cloud computer services. This will be a fun article to read in 10 years. I even read about these things for fun, with Simon Singhs The Code Book and the Neil Stephenson novel Cryptonomicon being particularly fun shortcuts to pick up some of the workings and the context of cryptography. Why do I trust the dollar? Bitcoin 2.0 is already here, people just dont know it yet. There is some potential in the future for the blockchain technology but we are just so early that its hard to pick winners. Bingo, so far you are the only one that stated the true value of any nation backed currency, notably the USD. Agree, the valuation of these cryptocurrencies are out of whack. Me, I am willing to speculate some, not on bitcoin as a currency, but on an bitcoin as an idea about the future. While stocks are likely a bit frothy, P/E ratios arent near the peaks they were circa 2000s: And important thing to note here is that underneath (almost all) stocks are actual engines of growth with hundreds or thousands of humans working hard, churning out profits, earnings, and dividends. We dont need to prey on their consumerism also. November 20, 2018, 11:56 am. Warren Buffet says dont invest in what you dont understand, and I dont understand Bitcoin. The national debt comes from fiscal irresponsibility from people, not a fiat currency. Sorry, PoF, Im staying away from your Bitcoins until I see a Tweet about the ones filled with chocolate. MissSaraBee I am not trying to promote it for this purpose, but it is not an invalid choice. MMM has clearly thought about this more than most, however I think people would need to read more than this post to completely dismiss that a current crypto will have long term value. Your in effect speculating on a winner even if you do believe the technology is the future. But if you have some play money, it doesnt hurt to speculate if that is what you enjoy doing and dont mind losing everything you put in. Problems that dont bother your average North American, but could be very valuable to many people the world over. It doesnt mean they are in bubbles at any price. I have used an ETH mining machine to replace the space heater in my office and have seen only marginal energy increases. But again, this is not investment but speculation! November 20, 2018, 9:31 am, rollie fingers Let them hold on to their fiat currency if they like to. January 16, 2018, 4:53 pm. We end up in Utopia? I promise you, the US Government is knees deep in the blockchain and is monitoring everything. So, we usually get $100 to $200 worth of stuff all at once. Well said! I dont know that page very good, but I think that answers this question ;). This is the greatest use of human energy and capital the world has ever seen. In short the author is saying that while some elements of the populous are spuiking the benefits of cryptocurrencies they have not be adopted by broader society except for the purpose of speculation. Thats why wind farms are much more economical in areas with large scale hydro. That is wrong. Shut up, just send me $100 via PayPal and Ill send you a bag of my fingernail clippings. No difference there. Its clear from reading the comments that most people dont understand how this works. In my personal opinion, Bitcoin just seems like another form of a financial institution that is trying to say its not an institution when it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck so it must be a bank, no?! He and his wife studied engineering and computer science in Canada, then worked in . > . MissSaraBee Whether you should get out is a difficult question. Also appreciate the utility of sending value to anyone anywhere with an internet connection without asking a middleman for permission doing financial surveillance on you. Well, SOMEONE has to keep the bankers & wealthy rich, right??? January 3, 2018, 4:56 pm. Mr. Money Mustache and his then-wife retired at the age of 30 with a net worth of $600,000. For one, your irrational hatred of gold, whose function for human beings you do not seem to understand. as well as all legal forms of private sales (ie. Nobody needs to worry about whether terms will be met. if you over leverage yourself in any of these you can find yourself in trouble. And what about physical forms of cash for private sales? Its very informative and answers many questions you raise, 2. Mustachianism the mental training that gets you to very early financial freedom requires you to evaluate inefficiencies in our culture and call bullshit upon them. In that forest there are old bricks. Some companies are already testing it in main net as well! ;). Please drop the bullying and come back to join the conversation. Because reasons, technology and internet! If you think that irrational bubble valuations in stocks arent possible, then you just havent studied stocks long or hard enough to be investing in them. Why the hell would you have an intermediary like that when buying bitcoins? I like the way he analyzes investments. Why? https://www.statista.com/statistics/326707/bitcoin-price-index/. Look at Cardano for example, they are building blockchain with built in treasury and KYC/AML endpoints. I couldnt find anything indicating countries are using bitcoin as a reserve currency. Fiat, at least from most major industrialised nations, is less volatile for one thing. Research further. coinwarz.com keeps track of profitability, but it can rapidly swing with changes in coin price. While cryptos are new, they also dont meet the needs of traditional cash flow analysis but for a new asset class but just because its new doesnt mean its a bad idea. Also, saying Blockchain Yes and Bitcoin No is tantamount to saying, Social Media is great but Facebook is not so great, or Internet Search is Great but Google is not Great!!! That is where we are with Bitcoins. Talk of being blissfully ignorant! But thats just the software side (Blockchain). Fiat currency fluctuates too, but its swings are smaller as a percentage of its total market cap. January 2, 2018, 6:30 pm. Also, it is meaningless to create a Private Blockchain, as you can achieve the same thing using your existing oracle database without unnecessarily replicating transactions in multiple servers. Plus $20 to run the transaction. Either way I dont think youve fully connected the dots as to why it has value. January 2, 2018, 5:53 pm, Dear Mr. Mustache, I am so sorry you had to write this at all. While I dont consider Bitcoin an investment and I wouldnt advise anyone to pour their life-savings into it right now, I do encourage anyone reading this to buy a small amount and start using it to make everyday purchases. Even if youre the only one doing it. Cryptos may be the money of the future, but there is nothing sane about its rise this past year. January 11, 2018, 4:23 am. So, Bitcoin is supposed to replace all forms of physical currency in theory because people dont trust banks. Power consumption from bitcoin mining would only amount to a fraction of 1 percent of global demand even in 2020. Crypto is here to stay albeit probably not at insane prices. The Money Mustache Community . Bitcoin could also be the TCP/IP and will probably be the world standard in 10 years! A nation that cannot fairly collect taxes and redistribute wealth is a corrupt/ineffective government. Why not somebody elses fingernail clippings? Because the banking system is corrupt and big government cant watch over it? But again, that value is likely to be closer to $1/bulb than $10,000/bulb. In stating that humans have never had a chance to own their own money you have hit on the essential problem with bitcoin and any other monetary alternative. It can have applications in the monetary system, contracts, and even as a component in higher level protocols like sharing files. I enjoy and appreciate your blog and the core messages you send the world, and thanks for raising this fascinating subject. Why not one of the other 1500 cryptocurrencies? My mother in law collected beanie babies and I had the pleasure of looking up their worth this Christmas back hometheyre about $5 each and I will owe eBay 10% + shipping. Educate yourself on why Bitcoin and Blockchain cannot be split up. Because An investment is something that has intrinsic value.. Pete Adeney is the man behind the money mustache, and he's full of great stories and advice. Only the most weak and fearful people will allow themselves to be stolen from for the sake of mythical national security that comes from trillions of dollars of military spending. Its diversification. I agree with MMMs eloquent outlining of the major concerns with investing in cryptocurrencies. Id love to see MMM fingernail futures one day on my ticker chart. If I lie to you and take your money, thats one thing. Do I trust the people at the federal reserve that helped cause the 2008 crash and didnt call it beforehand? However, investing in Bitcoin now seems more along the lines of investing in a BBS in the early 90s. Mr. Mustache. Say I trade you a car for 1 bitcoin on Jan 8. But this is not necessarily correct in every case. Its like Winston Churchill said: Gold is the silliest, most irrational thing you could ever use as money. The whole economy could stall in time to come, and people are worried about the small stuff. But they dont have to go down for there to be a US stock market crash in real terms. No one person has control over it and that may end up being a good thing (people are corruptible). Besides, how do you get BTC in the first place? Today, Jan 26, at 11:30 AM, its trading around $31,850. Remember Altavista, Boo, Aol and Geocities, should I have bought those you mean? Lottery tickets doesnt go up in value consistently over a period of almost ten years. TO_Ont Also appreciate fungibility. I am of the opinion all of Fiat will get wiped out in a decade or two! Why? One thing in that seems to be missing in this conversation that Bitcoin maximalists will always point out: As for your other comment, no sir, no amount of corruption is tolerable if you have the choice to get rid of it! Mr. Frugal Toque January 2, 2018, 5:52 pm. The rise in bitcoin represents people waking up to one delusion (false paper valuations) and unfortunately accepting another delusionthat digits are more valuable and trustworthy than paper. I remain open to more information on the uses of Blockchain, but Ive never seen a valid fundamental reason for betting on future increases in the prices of these things. Appreciate the post MMM. The value of bitcoin is very far removed from any sensible fundamental valuation, and the thing driving up the price seems to be a common sense that it will be worth more in the future. January 2, 2018, 8:53 pm. There used to be cool arbitrage opportunities on a website called purse.io, where you could buy amazon products for a discount using bitcoin but transaction fees have made those types of business models (temporarily?) (Serious question. January 2, 2018, 7:11 pm. Some guy on the internet So every time I say Bitcoin/altcoins are a stupid idea, I chuckle. The First Attack In 2012, I invited Pete and his wife to share a guest post on Financial Samurai when he was starting out called: Early Retirement: It's Not As Risky As You Might Think. Then in November I sold it and bought GBTC, which is a OTC fund holding bitcoins. Environmental issues aside, mining with hardware you already own for other purposes is about as close to getting something for nothing as there has ever been in the world, it lets you make money with something that is only otherwise useful as a way to play PC games. January 3, 2018, 12:06 am, Sounds like a classic case of sour grapes to me :-), Cameron MMM says: There is no intrinsic value in cryptocurrencies. 1. Im going to try putting some of my thoughts together in a post at the bottom. Are you saying wisened mustachians own no stock or ETF of any tobacco companies? You may be smart enough to recognize why one currency is going up and another isnt and to not go all-in on something. January 5, 2018, 8:26 am. Mr. Money Mustache For the most part, far from perfect, I am very thankful that it works. in my opinion. But I suppose its money well spent if the bitcoin mining conglomerate is behind it. January 4, 2018, 4:25 pm. Even if they made a hundred trillion dollars next year, you wouldnt see any of it unless you sold your stock to someone willing to pay a higher price for it (or they started paying dividends). Is it likely to be worth $0? Thats cool. It grew to $240k. January 3, 2018, 12:17 pm, The last 10% of possible wins are better left to the idiots. An example for this would be Ripple (like you mentioned above) which is working closely with banks to make international transactions better. Hurry! Im only a mediocre computer scientist. I dont think Bitcoin will be very snuggly. rollie fingers This article is pretty below par in its research and very one sided. The behavior of bitcoin since the genesis block has been completely different. Alright then, do you have all your money invested in cryptocurrencies? Fired & Free 2) lots of other things are used as a store of value (paintings, etc) Its value statement is the ability to send any amount of money, anywhere in the world, for very cheap, without asking anyones permission, and have the transaction be irreversibly settled within a few minutes. Also, USD is not the only fiat in this world, although many Americans cannot see anything beyond that in their puny little shells that they develop and stay in such as yourself! But if it goes down, I wont put anymore money into it. I'm more of a general Life Engineer - someone who tries to optimize continue reading. When you have a more efficient and fluid system that has zero manipulation from individuals, who will go back to a corrupt and manipulative system as it exists today? Smoking brings zero value to society, only net negative. That is something very valuable just like stocks are. Mr. Money Mustache Reveals A Huge, Hidden Obstacle to Early Retirement. We have never in history had such expanding currency supply backed by NOTHING. We clearly see them in Africa, Middle East and Latin America. Doesnt mean you cant speculate to help you get to FIRE sooner though. You will not own your money more with virtual currencies. You can keep saying its a bubble for eternity. Also, what is the source of that study? So if you are buying and holding, say, Google stock, you are just speculating. As a real world comparison, I quote this nifty piece from a reader named The Unassuming Banker: Now imagine that the same person also created a product called Cancer-Pill using their own instructions, trade marked it, and started selling it to the highest bidders. January 2, 2018, 5:54 pm. My friend who has a Masters in Computer Science inquired with me about investing in Bitcoin before Christmas and I told her essentially what I thought as mania. Please, Alex Anton is not shouting. Anytime someone says they are investing in Bitcoin, I have to laugh. Could you please tell us what you are invested in and when you got in? Mr. Money Mustache shares his opinion about Bitcoin. Thanks for sharing your opinion! That is bullshit written on toilet paper by a Private Bank called the Federal Reserve, owned by unscrupulous bunch of elites like your JP Morgan. We live in a world where both can, do and will exist. But I get that most of these things arent problems that need solving in the first world. It has reached the point that a big percentage of stories in the financial news and questions in Mr. Money Mustaches email inbox are about whether or not we should all invest in BitCoin. If youre in a position to do so, go for it. Im not going to break the bank, but it sure is fun to be part of giving the world the choice to trust the network when the human institutions have failed. Then they go on Twitter and demand that Mr. Money Mustache apologize to his followers for telling them that speculating on future frisbee prices is not a good idea. Either way it wont end badly right? Its a win-win situation.. Just one, just $2, and its (hopefully) only a sliver of your net worth. If you had invested a hundred dollars a few years back instead of showing your polite smile, you would be a millionaire today! No problem! 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